Aggression Factor in Poker: What AF Misses, and Why AFq Beats It
Aggression factor has a hole in it. The formula counts your bets and your calls and ignores every time you checked or folded, so two players who play nothing alike can post the same number.
The formula, and the hole in it
Aggression factor is bets plus raises, divided by calls. That's the whole thing.
Bet three times, call once, and your aggression factor is 3. Bet once, call three times, and it's 0.33.
Now look at what's missing. Checks aren't in it. Folds aren't in it. The formula has no idea how often you did nothing.
That gap matters more than it sounds. Consider two players over the same thousand hands:
| Player A | Player B | |
|---|---|---|
| Bets and raises | 100 | 100 |
| Calls | 50 | 50 |
| Folds | 40 | 300 |
| Aggression factor | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Identical numbers. Player B is folding seven times as often, which is a completely different game, and the stat can't see it. A tight player who folds instead of calling posts a high aggression factor without being aggressive at all.
The stat that fixes it
Aggression frequency, usually written AFq, divides your bets and raises by everything you did, folds included, and reports it as a percentage.
Run the same two players through it:
| Player A | Player B | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggression frequency | 53% | 22% |
Now they look as different as they are.
| AFq | Reading |
|---|---|
| Under 30% | Passive. You're along for the ride |
| 38 to 45% | Where most winning players sit |
| Above 55% | Very aggressive, and it needs good hand reading to hold up |
If your tracker offers both, read AFq and treat aggression factor as the thing other people quote.
Split it by street or don't bother
A single figure across all streets averages three different decisions into one, and they don't behave alike.
Rough shape for a winning player:
| Street | Aggression factor |
|---|---|
| Flop | 2.5 to 4 |
| Turn | 1.8 to 3 |
| River | 1 to 2 |
The line falls, and there's a reason. On the flop you're betting your good hands and your draws together. By the river the draws have either arrived, in which case they're value bets, or missed, in which case most of them give up. So the pile of hands that want to bet gets smaller as the streets go by.
A flat line across all three is the thing to look for. It usually means you're applying one habit everywhere rather than reading the situation.
The other shape worth catching is a river figure above the turn. That's a player who bluffs the river too often, and it's an expensive way to be.
What the number tells you about someone else
Aggression factor earns most of its keep as a read on opponents, and it only works next to a second stat.
| AF | WTSD | Who you're playing |
|---|---|---|
| Under 1 | Above 32 | Calling station. Value bet relentlessly, never bluff |
| 2 to 3 | 24 to 28 | Solid regular. Treat carefully |
| Above 5 | Under 24 | Aggressive. Let them bet your good hands for you |
| Above 5 | Above 30 | Chaos, and usually losing money |
The first row is where most of the profit at low stakes lives. Against a station your bluffs are burning money and your thin value bets are printing it, which is the opposite of how most people play them.
Reading your own
Check these in order.
Your AFq first. Under 30 percent and you're passive whatever your aggression factor says. That's the headline, and everything else is detail.
Then the street line. Pull flop, turn and river separately. Look for the fall. If the river is the highest of the three, your bluffs are landing on the most expensive street.
Then the gap between your aggression factor and your AFq. A high aggression factor sitting next to a low frequency means you're folding where you could be continuing. That's a fold-to-c-bet problem rather than an aggression problem, and the c-bet page covers it.
What it can't tell you
Aggression is a means rather than a goal. A player who raises every flop has a magnificent aggression factor and no money.
The stat can't see whether your bets were good ones. It counts them. Two players with identical numbers, one choosing spots and one firing blind, are indistinguishable here and separated by everything at the table.
So read it to find the shape of your game, then go and look at the hands. For the number that tells you whether your aggression is actually working, see WTSD.
Educational only. No real-money play. 18+. On Google Play now; iPhone coming soon.
Frequently asked questions
How is aggression factor calculated?
Bets plus raises, divided by calls. Three bets and one call gives an aggression factor of 3. Checks and folds don't appear anywhere in the formula, which is the source of most of the confusion about what the number means.
What is a good aggression factor?
Around 2 to 3 for most winning cash players, measured across all streets. Below 1 usually means a calling station. Above 5 is either a very strong player choosing their spots or somebody spewing, and the number alone can't tell you which.
What is the difference between AF and AFq?
Aggression factor divides bets and raises by calls. Aggression frequency divides bets and raises by everything you did, folds included, and reports a percentage. AFq is the better stat because it can't be distorted by a player who simply folds a lot.
What is a good aggression frequency?
Roughly 38 to 45 percent across all streets for a solid player. It's a more stable number than aggression factor and it's harder to fake, since every action you took is in the denominator.
Why is my aggression factor so high?
Usually because you're folding rather than calling, which shrinks the bottom of the fraction without you becoming any more aggressive. A tight player who folds instead of calling can post a high number while playing a passive game.
Should aggression factor be the same on every street?
No. Most winning players are most aggressive on the flop and least on the river, where the hands that were betting as draws have either got there or given up. A flat line across the streets usually means you aren't adjusting.
How many hands does aggression factor need?
More than you'd hope, because it only counts hands that reached a flop and then went further. Treat anything under 5,000 of your own hands as a rough direction. For an opponent, under 500 it's barely a hint.