4-Bet in Poker: What It Means, and Why Your Stat Is Probably Noise
Your tracker will happily show you a 4-bet percentage after two hundred hands. It's made of about three decisions. The number is real, the reading you take from it is invented, and this is the stat where that gap is widest.
What it is
Count the bets. The blinds are the first. An open raise is the second. A re-raise, the 3-bet, is the third. Re-raise that and you've made the fourth.
There's a version worth naming separately. A cold 4-bet is when the player making it wasn't in the hand at all. Somebody opens, somebody else re-raises, and a third player who has put in nothing raises over the top of both. It's rare and it means something, because that player is committing with no money already invested and nothing to protect.
The numbers, for what they're worth
| Stat | Winning range |
|---|---|
| 4-bet, as a share of 3-bets faced | 8 to 15% |
| Cold 4-bet | 1 to 3% |
| Fold to 4-bet | 50 to 60% |
Those are reasonable targets. Now here's why you probably can't tell whether you're hitting them.
The sample problem, in numbers
A 4-bet needs a run of events: someone opens, you re-raise, they re-raise back. Or someone opens, someone re-raises, and it's on you.
Work out how often that happens.
| Share of hands | |
|---|---|
| You face an open | About 1 in 3 |
| You 3-bet it | About 1 in 10 of those |
| They 4-bet you | About 1 in 8 of those |
That's roughly one hand in two hundred and forty. Ten thousand hands gives you about forty of them.
A percentage built on forty events has a margin around it wide enough to swallow the entire useful range. Your measured 12 percent is consistent with a true figure anywhere from about 4 to about 25. You cannot tell a nit from a maniac at that sample, and your tracker will display the number to one decimal place regardless.
For an opponent it's worse, because you've seen a fraction of their hands. A 4-bet read at under 5,000 hands on that player is a guess wearing a number.
So what should you actually do
Use the stat one level down. Their 3-bet percentage and their fold to 3-bet come up roughly ten times as often and settle far sooner. If someone 3-bets you constantly, that's readable at a thousand hands, and it tells you most of what a 4-bet read would.
Use your own over a career rather than a session. Your 4-bet figure is worth pulling once a year across your whole database. Looking at it monthly tells you about last month's variance.
Watch fold to 4-bet instead of 4-bet. It's a slightly larger sample, because every 4-bet anyone makes against you feeds it, and it's the one that's exploitable. If you fold to 4-bets too often, your 3-betting is being punished and you may not have noticed.
Work out the shove first
One practical point that matters more than any of the frequencies.
At a hundred big blinds, a 4-bet puts the pot at a size where folding to a shove is usually worse than calling. The money is effectively committed the moment you make the raise.
So the decision to 4-bet is really a decision about what happens if they move in. Make that call first. A 4-bet you'd fold to a shove with is a 4-bet that should have been a call or a fold to start with, and working it out afterwards is how people talk themselves into the worst result available.
The exception is a hand chosen deliberately as a bluff with a plan to fold, which is a real strategy and a different one. The mistake is arriving there by accident.
The short version
The number exists, the targets above are roughly right, and almost nobody has the sample to use it. Read your 3-bet stats instead and check this one once a year.
For the stat that actually is readable at ordinary samples, see 3-bet percentage. For which hands belong in a re-raising range, the preflop charts have the grids.
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Frequently asked questions
What is a 4-bet in poker?
The fourth bet before the flop. The blinds are the first, an open raise is the second, a re-raise is the third, and re-raising that is the fourth. In practice it's the hand where someone 3-bets you and you put more in rather than calling or folding.
What is a cold 4-bet?
A 4-bet made by a player who wasn't already in the hand. Someone opens, someone else 3-bets, and a third player who has put in nothing raises over both. It's rare and it's strong, because you're committing without the excuse of already having money in.
What is a good 4-bet percentage?
Roughly 8 to 15 percent of the 3-bets you face, for a winning player. Below that and good opponents can re-raise you freely. Above it and you're committing large pots with hands that don't want the money in.
How many hands do I need for a reliable 4-bet stat?
Tens of thousands of your own, and it's the reason most players should ignore this number. It comes up in roughly one hand in a hundred, so 10,000 hands gives you about a hundred spots and a figure with a wide margin on either side.
What is a good fold to 4-bet?
Around 50 to 60 percent. Much above that and your 3-bets are being punished by anyone who notices, since they can re-raise you as a bluff and you'll fold often enough to pay for it.
Can I use an opponent's 4-bet percentage?
Almost never in a cash game. You'd need a five-figure hand sample on that specific player. Use their 3-bet percentage and their fold to 3-bet instead, which come up ten times as often and settle far sooner.
Does 4-betting mean I'm committed to the pot?
Usually, at 100 big blinds. A 4-bet takes the pot to a size where folding to a shove costs more than calling with almost anything you'd have 4-bet. Decide what you're doing against a 5-bet before you make the raise, not after.